CINCINNATI — Are the Cincinnati Reds back in the playoff hunt?
With Wednesday’s 9-2 victory over the St. Louis Cardinals, the Reds are tied with the Cardinals for second in the National League Central, and they were only four games back of the Atlanta Braves for the third wild-card spot when the game ended.
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“We are a playoff team,” Reds second baseman Jonathan India said. India snapped an 0-for-23 streak with a three-run homer in the team’s four-run third, and then he added his 11th homer of the season to lead off the three-run fifth. “We’ve had tough stretches this year, but it’s part of baseball. We need to find ways to win, and we are now. I think it’s the perfect time to get hot.”
Obituaries were written for the Reds after the team was swept by the Detroit Tigers to start the final homestand before the All-Star break. Beers were poured out in memorandum following a three-game sweep by the Washington Nationals coming out of the break. The eulogy was served as the team lost two against the Tampa Bay Rays ahead of an underwhelming trade deadline. Yet, with 41 games remaining in the season, the Reds aren’t dead.
The Reds were alone in last place in the NL Central five days ago, falling to 56-61 after a 1-0 loss in Milwaukee. A win in the series finale allowed the team to hop over the Pittsburgh Pirates for fourth place. Wins in the first two games of the series against the Cardinals allowed the Reds to leapfrog the Chicago Cubs for third in the division. Wednesday’s victory over a free-falling Cardinals team pulled the two teams even at 60-61.
The Reds have three games left with the Cardinals next month in St. Louis, a win in just one of the three games at Busch Stadium would give Cincinnati the tiebreaker over its divisional foes. The Reds already own tiebreakers over the Philadelphia Phillies, Los Angeles Dodgers and Colorado Rockies, while they have already lost the tiebreaker to the Arizona Diamondbacks, San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants.
The Reds’ four-game winning streak is their longest since the seven-game win streak in early June.
Indy Eleven pic.twitter.com/m6YtjlNpng
— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) August 15, 2024
“We always know how good we are, we always want to win and we never give up, that’s the motto of our team ever since I’ve been here,” India said. “It’s going to turn for us one year, I know it is, and it’s this year.”
While those outside of the clubhouse and the front office have panicked throughout the season — from devastating injuries to players like Matt McLain, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and even TJ Friedl, to the trades of veterans Frankie Montas and Lucas Sims — the Reds have shown no signs of panic.
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The Reds finished their sweep against a fading Cardinals team that has lost nine of 13 games this month and has an upcoming homestand against two first-place clubs in the Dodgers and Brewers. The Cardinals don’t face a team that currently has a losing record until Sept. 10, when the Reds go to St. Louis. By that time, the Cardinals will not only have had to face the Dodgers and Brewers, but also the Minnesota Twins, the Padres, the New York Yankees and the Seattle Mariners.
The Reds have gone 8-6 since the trade deadline.
“We just have to keep going, it’s that simple,” Reds manager David Bell said. “I know it sounds ridiculous, but just keep going, keep playing, not worry about anything else. Continue to believe in what we’re doing, continue to work like our guys do. They’re great at that. Play hard. Stay together. Do the things that we do well. Stay focused on that and don’t pay attention to anything else.”
That Bell soundbite was from postgame of Wednesday’s victory, but also sounds a lot like Bell’s messages after many of the team’s 61 losses so far this season.
Bell has leaned on that message throughout the season, while the front office has pointed to the team’s plus-55 run differential. That sits behind each of the division leaders in the NL, as well as the Diamondbacks and Padres, the top two teams in the wild-card standings. The next closest teams to the Reds are the Braves (plus-47) and the New York Mets (plus-23). The Cubs are the only other NL team with a positive run differential at plus-3.
“It’s kind of an annoying answer for fans, but you look at our run differential and you can see that we’re playing better ball than our record says we’ve played,” said veteran Emilio Pagán, who pitched two innings as the team’s opener Wednesday. “It’s also true — that’s something we’ve had to hold on to and we’re going to hold on to moving forward.”
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Pagán said he would have scoffed at run differential’s deeper meaning earlier in his career, but experience has shown him that at the end of the year, most playoff teams score more runs throughout the season than they give up. Last season four of the six playoff teams from the NL had positive run differentials and all six AL playoff teams did.
Pagán, who has played for six teams over his eight-year career, has played for four different teams that made the playoffs. Pagán’s second season in the big leagues was in Oakland, where the A’s were 11 1/2 games out of first place in late June, but finished the season with 97 wins.
“I know it’s an oversimplification of how baseball works, but it’s the reason you play 162 games,” Pagán said. “Because over the course of a full season, if you play good baseball for that extended period of time, you should be in a position to be in the playoffs.”
Friedl said there’s an even more simple reason to believe.
“Because it’s baseball,” he said. “Anything can happen in baseball.”
(Photo of Elly De La Cruz and Will Benson: Kirk Irwin / Getty Images)
C. Trent Rosecrans is a senior writer for The Athletic covering the Cincinnati Reds and Major League Baseball. He previously covered the Reds for the Cincinnati Enquirer and the Cincinnati Post and has also covered Major League Baseball for CBSSports.com. Follow C. Trent on Twitter @ctrent
