The FedEx Cup Playoffs begin this week in Memphis, with the FedEx St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind. This is the second year of the new FedEx Cup Playoffs format, where the players in the top 70 spots of the FedEx Cup standings after the Wyndham Championship qualify. FedEx Cup points are quadrupled in the playoff events, with 2,000 points going to the winner at the FedEx St. Jude Championship and the BMW Championship.
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The players chasing Scottie Scheffler will need every point they can get as he starts the playoffs with an almost 2,000-point lead on second-place Xander Schauffele. Scheffler, the Olympic gold medal winner, is also more than 5,300 points ahead of Victor Perez, who comes into the playoffs as the last man in.
After this week’s tournament, the playoff field will shrink from 70 to 50 players. The players currently below the top 50 in the FedEx Cup standings will be hoping to fight their way to the BMW Championship with good play this week, the same way Cam Davis and Hideki Matsuyama did in 2023. Jake Knapp, who currently sits at 50th in the FedEx Cup standings, and former FedEx St. Jude Championship winner Will Zalatoris look especially vulnerable to surrendering their spots in the top 50 of the FedEx Cup standings. Zalatoris will have to shake off the malaise that he has suffered from since his top-10 finish at the Masters. He hasn’t finished inside the top 40 of any tournament since then. Knapp hasn’t gained more than a stroke on approach in any tournament since the PGA Championship.
Aaron Rai will be hoping to go back-to-back this week after winning the Wyndham Championship in a fantastic finish. Rai gained over 10 strokes ball-striking on his way to a win at 35-to-1 for all the bettors out there. Max Greyserman opened the door for Rai by making a quadruple bogey down the stretch, but Rai still had to play flawless golf to close it out. Rai doesn’t need to look that far back for inspiration when it comes to winning the Wyndham Championship and FedEx St. Jude Championship double, as Lucas Glover did in 2023.
The key to winning at TPC Southwind has to be ball striking. The doglegs and water in play will demand the players pay attention off the tee, but the small greens will reward those players who lead the field in proximity to the hole on approach shots. Strokes gained around the green and scrambling will also be key stats, as players will need to get up and down from some tough spots to win at TPC Southwind.
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Course information
Course: TPC Southwind — Memphis
Designer: Ron Prichard, with help from Hubert Green and Fuzzy Zoeller
Par: 70
Yardage: 7,244 yards
Average green size: 4,300 square feet
Features: The golf course features Bermuda greens and rough, zoysia tee boxes and fairways, and many holes where water comes into play. TPC Southwind has had more balls hit into the water than TPC Sawgrass since 2005. The small greens and precise targets off of the tee favor ball strikers. The winner has shot 15-under each of the last two years and won in a playoff.
Recent champions: 2023 Lucas Glover, 2022 Will Zalatoris, 2021 Tony Finau, 2020 Dustin Johnson, 2019 Patrick Reed, 2018 Bryson DeChambeau, 2017 Dustin Johnson, 2016 Patrick Reed
2024 FedEx St. Jude Championship odds
All odds from BetMGM.
Betting slip
Xander Schauffele (+800) has struggled at TPC Southwind over the years. He has lost over 1.3 strokes off the tee the last three times he teed it up here. His best finish was a T6 in 2020. But Schauffele has changed the narrative that surrounded his career this season. He is a changed man and golfer. I expect Schauffele to contend this week with the way he has been scrambling. He has been locked in all year, and a win to start the playoffs would make for a great race with Scheffler for the FedExCup trophy.
Tommy Fleetwood (+2500) was fantastic at the Olympics, but once again had to watch someone else win. Fleetwood didn’t lose that gold medal. Scheffler won it with a stunning performance on the last day. Fleetwood gained over 6.6 strokes on approach and with his short game at the Olympics. He has two top-four finishes in his last four trips to TPC Southwind, and he gained over 4 strokes ball-striking and with his short game last year as he tied for third.
Hideki Matsuyama (+3300) gained strokes across the board on his way to a bronze medal at the Olympics. He gained over 5.8 strokes with his short game and ball-striking in France. Matsuyama has three straight top-20 finishes at TPC Southwind, and he has gained over 3 strokes around the green in each of his last two trips here.
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Davis Thompson (+7000) doesn’t have any experience at TPC Southwind, but his game seems to fit this golf course pretty well. He had a rough Sunday with his irons at the Wyndham Championship, otherwise he would have gained strokes across the board for the week. He still managed to hang on for a T12 in tough conditions. He has gained over 3.8 strokes with his short game in five of his last six tournaments while gaining over 2 strokes off the tee in five straight.
Eric Cole (+12500) has gotten hot at the right time, with three top-seven finishes in his last five tournaments. He has gained more than 3.2 strokes on approach in four of his last five tournaments. He has gained over 2 strokes with his short game in seven straight tournaments. He finished T31 here last year when his putter kept him from contending.
DFS plays
Xander Schauffele ($11,400) See above.
Collin Morikawa ($10,000) struggled at the Olympics with a balky putter. He lost over 5.7 strokes on the greens while gaining over 7.3 strokes on approach. I expect Morikawa to bounce back on the greens this week, and his ball-striking can’t be overlooked as he has gained over 6.3 strokes on approach in two straight tournaments. He has a nice course history here, gaining strokes across the board in two straight trips.
Tommy Fleetwood ($9,800) See above.
Hideki Matsuyama ($9,300) See above.
Corey Conners ($9,100) has played TPC Southwind seven times and has mastered how to get off the tee in that time. He has gained over 2 strokes off the tee in five straight trips to TPC Southwind, with his best finish being a T6 last year. He has been better around the green lately, gaining strokes with his short game in seven straight tournaments.
Billy Horschel ($8,500) comes into this week on a bit of a heater as he finished second at the Open Championship and tied for seventh at the Wyndham Championship. He gained over 4 strokes on approach in each tournament while gaining over 2.4 strokes with his putter in each. He’s gaining almost 1 stroke per round on the field in his 42 rounds of golf at TPC Southwind. He has four top nines in his last eight trips here.
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Justin Thomas ($8,400) missed out on the playoffs last season and missed a chance to play one of his favorite golf courses. When Thomas is playing his best, he is sharp with his irons, and when he misses, he makes up for it with an excellent short game. His putting has put a ton of pressure on those two facets of his game lately, but this golf course, with its relatively easy greens, might be what he needs for some confidence. He won here in 2020, and he has gained strokes on approach in every trip to TPC Southwind.
Aaron Rai ($8,200) is coming off of a win where he was dominant throughout his bag. He may have driven some people nuts with his putting routine, but it worked for him. He hasn’t been able to improve on his T12 in his first visit to TPC Southwind, but I expect that to change this week. There’s no time for a win hangover when it comes to playoff time.
Adam Scott ($7,700) had a very nice trip to the Scottish Open and the Open Championship, finishing second in Scotland and then T10 at the Open Championship. He gained over 2.5 strokes on approach in each of those tournaments, and he finished T5 in his last trip to TPC Southwind.
Brian Harman ($7,600) was a popular pick last week at the Wyndham Championship, but he struggled quite a bit. He has two top-six finishes at TPC Southwind, and he has gained strokes off the tee in every trip here. I want to use some Harman, thinking people will be off of him after last week.
Davis Thompson ($7,400) See above.
Eric Cole ($6,700) See above.
Ben Griffin ($6,600) has two top-seven finishes in his last five tournaments. He finished T24 here last year, gaining over a stroke on approach and with his short game. He gained over 8 strokes on approach last week, which is just the form you are looking for heading into the playoffs.
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One and done
Each week, we will pick in reverse order of the standings, and we can’t duplicate picks in the same week. Referencethis spreadsheettracking who we have used.
Standings
Dennis Esser: $10,088,478
Brody Miller: $8,867,969.16
Hugh Kellenberger: $8,513,527.63
Kellenberger: I’m running out of time and names to make this final push and get on top of the leaderboard, so I’m playing Rory McIlroy. I don’t love the course fit at TPC Southwind, and he has quite erratic results there, but he possesses both the highest ceiling and highest floor I have left on my roster.
Miller:The model of consistency, Patrick Cantlay, had a very inconsistent first few months, which is why he has not been picked yet. But suddenly, Cantlay has gone T3 at Pinehurst, T5 at Travelers and T25 at the Open. Oh, and nobody thrives more in the big-money FedEx events than Cantlay, who went to a playoff in Memphis a year ago.
Esser: Both of my opponents already shot their Billy Horschel bullets, so I am free to take him this week at a golf course that he has liked over the years. I just realized one of my one-and-dones changed their playoff format this season to double the money in the playoffs, and I am kicking myself for not realizing that sooner.
(Photo of Scottie Scheffler: Keyur Khamar / PGA Tour via Getty Images)
Dennis Esser is a contributor to The Athletic, covering golf through the lens of sports betting and fantasy sports. A resident of New Jersey, Dennis' writing has appeared in numerous fantasy and betting outlets.
