Not all things are equal when it comes to the 2024 NFL schedule.
Across 272 games and 18 weeks, some teams have advantages in their paths to playoffs, especially when it comes to their opponents.
Three games on each team’s schedule are based solely on where it placed within its division the year before, giving reigning division winners tougher, more exciting matchups the following season and division bottom dwellers some easier ones.
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Tack on the level of competition in some of the league's most stacked divisions, and certain teams face an uphill battle, while others have a more manageable slate.
Ahead of the 2024 season, let's look at each team's strength of schedule based on last season's results and this year's projections.
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Hardest NFL schedules for the 2024 season
The Cleveland Browns have the toughest NFL schedule this upcoming season based on the 2023 records of their opponents.
Along with being in an AFC North where all four teams finished above .500 last year, the Browns will face the full AFC West and NFC East this season. Additionally, they have a second-place schedule after going 11-6 last year, resulting in matchups with the Miami Dolphins, Jacksonville Jaguars and New Orleans Saints.
There are plenty of offseason changes for each team, so another way of gauging strength of schedule is by looking at the projected wins of the opponents on a team's schedule.
By this metric, compiled by Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Analysis, the toughest 2024 slate belongs to one of the Browns' division rivals: the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Pittsburgh has a nearly identical schedule to Cleveland, even down to home/away matchups against most opponents. Instead of playing the Dolphins, Jags and Saints, the Steelers' standings-based matchups are against the New York Jets, Indianapolis Colts and Atlanta Falcons.
Easiest NFL schedules for the 2024 season
For the second straight year, the Falcons will have the easiest schedule based on their opponents' 2023 records.
The Falcons are tied with the Saints for the easiest 2024 schedule. Atlanta is matched up with the Minnesota Vikings, Seattle Seahawks and Steelers in records-based games, while New Orleans has the Green Bay Packers, Los Angeles Rams and Browns.
The Packers-Rams-Browns group won more games last season than the Vikings-Seahawks-Steelers one did, but the difference is made up by the Saints (9-8) winning more games than the Falcons (7-10) in 2023, swaying their head-to-head matchups when it comes to overall strength of schedule.
Like the AFC North, all four teams in the NFC South will play the entirety of the AFC West and NFC East in 2024. So, why do the Falcons and Saints have noticeably easier schedules than the Browns and Steelers? Because the NFL's worst team from 2023 resides in the NFC South.
The Falcons and Saints, as well as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, get the benefit of playing the Carolina Panthers twice each year. After finishing 2-15 in 2023, Carolina has a projected 2024 win line of 4.5 in Sharp's analysis, tied with the New England Patriots for the lowest in the NFL.
Former three-time NFL All Pro Shawne Merriman breaks down his top five Sunday Night Football matchups for the 2024 season.
NFL strength of schedule 2024
Here's a ranking of each team's strength of schedule based on 2023 win totals and 2024 projected wins:
NFL strength of schedule based on opponents’ 2023 win percentage
1. Cleveland Browns: .547
2. Baltimore Ravens: .536
3. Pittsburgh Steelers: .533
T-4. Green Bay Packers: .526
T-4. Houston Texans: .526
T-6. Buffalo Bills: .516
T-6. New York Giants: .516
T-8. Jacksonville Jaguars: .512
T-8. Las Vegas Raiders: .512
T-8. New England Patriots: .512
11. Detroit Lions: .509
T-12. Dallas Cowboys: .505
T-12. Los Angeles Rams: .505
T-12. New York Jets: .505
T-12. San Francisco 49ers: .505
T-16. Cincinnati Bengals: .502
T-16. Kansas City Chiefs: .502
T-16. Minnesota Vikings: .502
T-16. Washington Commanders: .502
20. Denver Broncos .495
T-21. Indianapolis Colts: .491
T-21. Philadelphia Eagles: .491
T-21. Tennessee Titans: .491
T-24. Arizona Cardinals: .488
T-24. Miami Dolphins: .488
T-24. Seattle Seahawks: .488
T-27. Los Angeles Chargers: .478
T-27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: .478
T-29. Carolina Panthers: .467
T-29. Chicago Bears: .467
T-31. Atlanta Falcons: .453
T-31. New Orleans Saints .453
NFL strength of schedule based on opponents’ 2024 projected wins
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
2. New England Patriots
3. Cleveland Browns
4. Baltimore Ravens
5. Minnesota Vikings
6. Tennessee Titans
7. Houston Texans
8. Denver Broncos
9. Las Vegas Raiders
10. Buffalo Bills
11. Dallas Cowboys
12. Detroit Lions
13. New York Giants
14. Green Bay Packers
15. San Francisco 49ers
16. Los Angeles Rams
17. Arizona Cardinals
18. Seattle Seahawks
19. Jacksonville Jaguars
20. Washington Commanders
21. Kansas City Chiefs
22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
23. Carolina Panthers
24. Philadelphia Eagles
25. Miami Dolphins
26. Indianapolis Colts
27. Cincinnati Bengals
28. New Orleans Saints
29. New York Jets
30. Chicago Bears
31. Los Angeles Chargers
32. Atlanta Falcons
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